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By EUGENE DANIELS and RYAN LIZZA
With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
Last night, Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro in a bellwether House race for New York's 19th Congressional District. | Mary Altaffer/AP Photo
It’s time to adjust your expectations for November.
For weeks, pundits have homed in on the special election in New York’s 19th Congressional District as a national bellwether. The seat is a true toss-up — one of those rare districts won by BARACK OBAMA in 2012, DONALD TRUMP in 2016 and JOE BIDEN in 2020 — and the national parties responded appropriately, sending in huge sums of money and organizational resources to win it.
The race would offer a trial run of the parties’ general election messages. Democrat PAT RYAN’s “ads hammered on the need to elect a representative who would fight for abortion rights in the wake of the Supreme Court’s June decision undoing Roe v. Wade,” writes Bill Mahoney, while Republican MARC MOLINARO’s campaign “centered on crime and inflation.”
Last night, Ryan defeated Molinaro.
Not only that, he overperformed Biden in 2020. Indeed, as Ryan Matsumoto noted last night: “Democrats have now outperformed Biden’s numbers in each of the four U.S. House special elections since the Dobbs decision in June.”
A win there by Democrats is the clearest evidence yet that the 2022 election is unlikely to turn out quite the way that conventional wisdom imagined less than a year ago, after Republican GLENN YOUNGKIN rode a red wave into the Virginia governor’s mansion.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that Dems will hold the House and Senate. Nor does it mean that Republicans will be in the minority come 2023. But “Ryan’s victory in the marginal swing district suggests that Democrats have at least a chance of bucking both traditional midterm losses for the party that controls White House, and an economy that many voters say they still believe is headed in the wrong direction,” as Zach Montellaro writes.
“It can be tempting to read too much into special elections,” write David Siders, Gary Fineout and Matt Dixon. “They’re not always predictive of results in the fall, and Republicans this year have overperformed in some places, too. In June, the GOP won a South Texas House seat that had been held by a Democrat. But that was before Roe shook the political landscape.”
There are less than 11 weeks left until Election Day.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT — via Dave Wasserman: “Lots of focus on Dems being more engaged/energetic post-Dobbs, which is undeniably true. But to me, the GOP/Trump base appears less engaged than it was last November, which is just as big a part of the story.”
— Rep. JERRY NADLER defeated Rep. CAROLYN MALONEY in a messy Manhattan matchup of the two longtime Democratic colleagues, House committee chairs and friends. More from Danielle Muoio Dunn, Sally Goldenberg and Julian Shen-Berro
— Rep. SEAN PATRICK MALONEY defeated progressive primary challenger state Sen. ALESSANDRA BIAGGI by more than 20 points. Our Anna Gronewold writes that SPM’s victory is “a blow to the left, which has criticized Maloney’s actions as Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair while the party prepares for a bitter fight for control of the House this fall. His win is also a flex of strength for the establishment wing of the party that lined up to back him.”
— In the open seat in NY-10, former federal prosecutor DAN GOLDMAN topped a crowded Democratic field in the deep blue seat, edging out state Assemblymember YUH-LINE NIOU. Rep. MONDAIRE JONES, who moved into the district from his suburban-based seat after redistricting, came in third. More from Erin Durkin, Joe Anuta and Janaki Chadha
— In the open seat in safely Republican NY-23, State GOP Chair NICK LANGWORTHY declared victory over CARL PALADINO, who refused to concede. More from Bill Mahoney
— Rep. CHARLIE CRIST defeated state Agriculture Commissioner NIKKI FRIED to win the Democratic Party’s nomination to take on Gov. RON DeSANTIS in November. A relative moderate — he was, after all, first elected governor as a Republican in 2006 — Crist painted himself as a unifier who could take on and defeat DeSantis in the general election.
Crist will “face a challenging task in defeating DeSantis, who had no real primary foe and is sitting on more than $130 million between his campaign and an aligned political committee,” as Matt Dixon and Gary Fineout note.
Speaking of the sitting governor: “Most DeSantis-endorsed school board candidates win their Florida primaries,” by Andrew Atterbury
— “MAXWELL ALEJANDRO FROST, a 25-year-old Generation Z activist and occasional Uber driver supported by progressives,” won a contentious primary in Florida’s 10th congressional district, defeating state Sen. RANDOLPH BRACY and former Reps. CORRINE BROWN and ALAN GRAYSON. More from Gary Fineout
— “Markwayne Mullin wins U.S. Senate GOP runoff in deep-red Oklahoma,” AP
Full results: Florida statewide and Florida congressional districts … New York special elections and New York congressional districts … Oklahoma statewide and Oklahoma 2nd district runoff
Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
Did you know: 39% of insured Americans say they don’t understand what’s covered by their insurance. Health insurance coverage should be predictable and transparent, and insured Americans agree. Learn more from our latest Patient Experience Survey report.
STAT OF THE DAY — Here’s a staggering figure out of Pennsylvania, via the Philly Inquirer’s Julia Terruso and Jonathan Lai: Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the Keystone State “has had one of the nation’s biggest gender gaps in new registrations, according to Democratic voter data firm Target Smart, which said women have outpaced men by about 12 percentage points in new registrations since June 24.” Of the Pennsylvania women who have registered since Dobbs, there are four Democrats for every one Republican.
SURVEY SAYS — As Biden weighs a decision to possibly forgive up to $10,000 in student loan debt for individuals making under $125,000, and with the pause in federal student loan payments set to expire next week, the latest POLITICO/Morning Consult poll shows support for extending the suspension of monthly payments and interest for federal student loans beyond Aug. 31:
Three more numbers worth noting from the poll:
New research examines how insured Americans navigate unclear and unaffordable insurance coverage.
BIDEN’S WEDNESDAY: At 10 a.m., the president will depart Rehoboth Beach, Del., en route to the White House, where he is scheduled to arrive at 10:55 a.m. VP KAMALA HARRIS’ WEDNESDAY: The VP has nothing on her public schedule. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 3 p.m. THE SENATE and HOUSE are out.
JOIN THURSDAY FOR A GLOBAL INSIDER INTERVIEW: From climate change to public health emergencies and a gloomy global economic outlook, the world continues to deal with overlapping crises. How do we best confront all of these issues? Join POLITICO Live on Thursday, Sept. 22 at 10:30 a.m. EDT for a virtual conversation with Global Insider author Ryan Heath, featuring World Bank President David Malpass, to explore what it will take to restore global stability and avoid a prolonged recession. REGISTER HERE.
A woman tries to salvage her flooded wellness studio in Dallas on Tuesday, Aug. 23, after heavy rains across the drought-stricken Dallas-Fort Worth area caused flash flooding the day before. | LM Otero/AP Photo
THE LATEST IN THE COURTS — A federal judge on Tuesday ordered Trump’s team to give some more details about what it is asking for as lawyers seek to limit the Justice Department’s review of the documents taken from Mar-a-Lago, Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein report. “In a brief order on Tuesday afternoon, U.S. District Court Judge AILEEN CANNON signaled some confusion about the motion Trump’s attorneys filed on Monday asking for an outsider to sift through materials the FBI seized from Trump’s home and resort in Palm Beach, Fla., earlier this month pursuant to a search warrant.”
— Meanwhile, NYT’s Maggie Haberman, Glenn Thrush and Alan Feuer write that the “errant court filing offered a glimpse into the confusion and uncertainty the investigation has exposed inside Mr. Trump’s camp.” As he faces a cascade of legal challenges, “Trump is serving as his own communications director and strategic adviser, seeking tactical political and in-the-moment public relations victories, sometimes at the risk of stumbling into substantive legal missteps.”
I WANT YOU BACK — Ever since the FBI search at Mar-a-Lago, Trump has “repeatedly made a simple-sounding but extraordinary ask: he wanted his lawyers to get ‘my documents’ back from federal law enforcement,” Rolling Stone’s Asawin Suebsaeng and Adam Rawnsley report. “Trump wasn’t merely referring to the alleged trove of attorney-client material that he insists was scooped up by the feds during the raid, two people familiar with the matter tell Rolling Stone. The ex-president has been demanding that his team find a way to recover ‘all’ of the official documents that Trump has long referred to as ‘mine’ — including the highly sensitive and top secret ones.”
KNOWING CHRIS WRAY —Betsy Woodruff Swan has a deep dive on FBI Director CHRIS WRAY, who recently reached the halfway point of his 10-year term just as the agency was thrust into the spotlight anew. “Wray was chosen as [JAMES] COMEY’s replacement, ostensibly, to calm the waters: a head-down professional who would redirect the public focus to what the bureau was doing, rather than what was happening to it. But now, five years later, he has found himself personally targeted by MAGA world and his agents facing a surge of violent threats. If Republicans take control of the House after the midterms, his job will get even trickier.”
QUOTE OF THE DAY, PART I — “If JOHN FETTERMAN had ever eaten a vegetable in his life, then maybe he wouldn't have had a major stroke." That, via a statement to Insider from RACHEL TRIPP, senior comms adviser to MEHMET OZ’s Senate campaign.
… PART II — “I had a stroke. I survived it. I’m truly so grateful to still be here today. I know politics can be nasty, but even then, I could *never* imagine ridiculing someone for their health challenges,” Fetterman responded.
… PART III — “Nice try. Dr. Oz has been urging people to eat more veggies for years. That’s not ridicule. It’s good health advice. We’re only trying to help,” Tripp told the Daily Beast.
… PART IV — “Way to keep Crudité in the news. Brilliant strategy,” commentedTOMMY VIETOR.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL is stepping into Georgia’s hotly contested gubernatorial race, appearing as a “special guest” at a D.C. fundraiser next month for Gov. BRIAN KEMP.
Kemp, once a top target of Trump’s post-2020 wrath, humiliated the former president in his state’s May primary, thrashing former Sen. DAVID PERDUE, Trump’s recruit to run against him. Now Republican senators are rallying around Kemp as he faces a general election against Democrat STACEY ABRAMS. For the Sept. 8 event featuring McConnell, an invitation obtained by Playbook lists 16 other senators as guests. Contribution levels range from $1,000 to $7,600. The invite
BATTLE FOR THE SENATE — Forget the Fantastic Four: A group of Democratic Senate nominees are banding together to form the “Flippable Five” — a nifty name for the quintet that is vying for hotly contested seats currently held by Republican senators.
The gambit: The five candidates will split donations, offering the latest “sign Democrats are feeling upbeat about their chances of not just defending incumbent senators, but of making inroads around the country,” Anthony Adragna reports for Congress Minutes.
Who’s in the group:
HIGHWAY TO THE DANGER ZONE — “New DeSantis fighter jet ad conjures 1988 Dukakis tank debacle,” by WaPo’s Gillian Brockell
2024 WATCH — “Newsom's dodge on safe injection sites in California adds to speculation about his ambition,” by Jeremy White
New research examines how insured Americans navigate unclear and unaffordable insurance coverage.
BUDGET BUSTER — The White House expects a plunging federal budget deficit this year, according to an estimate released on Tuesday, per Kate Davidson. The details: “The budget gap for fiscal 2022 will total an estimated $1 trillion — $1.7 trillion less than the deficit last year and about $400 billion less than officials projected in March, according to the White House’s mid-year budget update released Tuesday. That would be the lowest annual deficit since 2019, before the pandemic plunged the U.S. into a deep recession and prompted a wave of government spending to cushion the economy.”
WHERE BIDEN WON’T GO — In the first year of Biden’s presidency, it wasn’t uncommon to hear him refer to his predecessor — whether it be his politics or his policies. But as Trump has come under intense scrutiny following the FBI’s search of Mar-a-Lago, Biden has gone silent. “Now, with midterm campaign season getting into full swing, Mr. Biden plans to make criticizing Mr. Trump’s agenda a key part of his message as he seeks to paint a contrast with Republicans, aides said. But he has no plans to wade into the political minefield of the Mar-a-Lago search,” WSJ’s Andrew Restuccia and Vivian Salama write.
REMEMBER HIM? — “‘We Build The Wall’ defendant wants retrial in Colorado,” AP
DEAL OR NO DEAL — As the world watches for negotiators to reach an agreement on a revived Iran nuclear deal, AP’s Matthew Lee and Aamer Madhani write that more movement could be on the way this week — though a timeline for an official agreement is unclear. “U.S. officials say they expect to respond to Iran’s comments on a European draft proposal by Wednesday, after which there is expected to be another exchange of technical details followed by a meeting of the joint commission that oversees the deal.”
— Meanwhile, the Israeli government is “ramping up pressure” on the Biden administration to abandon the talks over the renewed deal, Nahal Toosi reports. Israeli national security adviser EYAL HULATA met with national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN on Tuesday, and Defense Minister BENNY GANTZ is due for a meeting on Friday. So far, the pleas have not altered U.S. officials’ view.
POLICING IN AMERICA — “Former Louisville cop pleads guilty to lying on Breonna Taylor search warrant,” by the Louisville Courier Journal’s Andrew Wolfson and Billy Kobin
— “Charges dropped against officers involved in Rayshard Brooks’ death,” by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Asia Simone Burns, Alexis Stevens, Bill Rankin and Shaddi Abusaid
BOOSTER BUSINESS — The next round of coronavirus vaccine booster shots could be available to a large swath of Americans starting in September, WSJ’s Stephanie Armour reports. The boosters still need to be reviewed and approved by federal regulators. But questions remain about how much interest there will be among the public for another jab and how effective they will be against the ever-mutating virus.
MONKEYPOX LATEST — The Biden administration’s strategy for stretching scarce monkeypox shots is instead leading to fewer vaccinations and could worsen racial health disparities, Megan Messerly and Krista Mahr report this morning. “The federal government last week slashed the number of vials states received in anticipation of each being able to vaccinate up to five people per vial instead of one. But health officials in half a dozen states told POLITICO that they are routinely able to extract only three or four doses per vial, meaning they were able to vaccinate fewer people last week than if the federal government had made no changes at all because of the drastically reduced allocations.”
RECESSION FEARS — Officials at the Fed and the White House are grappling with the challenge of combating inflation without spurring a recession that would harm the workplace gains Black Americans have made, NYT’s Talmon Joseph Smith and Ben Casselman report. “The Black unemployment rate was 6 percent last month, just above the record low of late 2019. And in government data collected since the 1990s, wages for Black workers are rising at their fastest pace ever. … Decades of research has found that workers from racial and ethnic minorities … are among the first laid off during a downturn and the last hired during a recovery.”
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Paul Pelosi pleaded guilty to a DUI and was sentenced to five days in jail and three years of probation.
Rick Scott is apparently vacationing in Italy — just a day after he blasted Joe Biden for vacationing in … Delaware.
Olivia Nuzzi wants to quash the “MAL” shorthand for Mar-a-Lago — and is taking her plea to Maggie Haberman: “only you have the power to stop this acronym.”
President Stephen A. Smith? The ESPN personality is thinking about it.
Ted Leonsis is thinking about buying the Nationals.
Chelsea Clinton listens to Jay-Z and Beyoncé when she runs. But absolutely not Kanye West.
Bill de Blasio, unabashed Boston Red Sox fan, will be a visiting teaching fellow at Harvard this fall.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Alex Sammon is now a politics writer at Slate. He previously was a staff writer at The American Prospect and was a columnist and feature writer for The New Republic.
— Dentons Global Advisors-Albright Stonebridge Group is adding a pair of senior advisers: Tami Overby, who previously was SVP for Asia and president of the U.S. Korea Business Council at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and Ho Heng Chuan, who previously was vice chair at Citigroup Malaysia.
TRANSITIONS — Pat Thompson is now a professional staff member on the Senate Commerce Committee. He previously was national security adviser for Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.). … Tess McEnery will be executive director of the Project on Middle East Democracy. She previously was at the State Department’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor, and is an NSC alum. … Joe Heaton is now senior director of public affairs at Ice Miller. He previously was executive director of government affairs at Forian Inc. …
… Jess Szymanski is now senior adviser for strategic and crisis comms at Clout Public Affairs. She most recently was comms director for Dave McCormick’s Pennsylvania Senate campaign, and is a Trump DOE and API alum. … Antonia Ferrier is now VP for external affairs at the International Republican Institute. She most recently was chief strategy and comms officer at CGCN Group, and is a Mitch McConnell, Orrin Hatch and John Boehner alum. … Zach Kennedy is now a project director at Firehouse Strategies. He most recently was deputy campaign manager for Steve Irwin's Pennsylvania congressional campaign.
ENGAGED — Vaughn Hillyard, a correspondent at NBC News, proposed to CNN’s Devan Cayea over the weekend in Montana, the location of their first road trip together. Instead of rings, the two opted for bracelets with gemstones representing their home states. Instapic
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.) … Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) … Mike Huckabee … CNN’s David Gregory … CBS’ Major Garrett (6-0) … Nick Denton … Galia Slayen … James Gordon Meek … Todd Harris of Something Else Strategies … David Molina of Rep. Alan Lowenthal’s (D-Calif.) office … New Mexico GOP Chair and former Rep. Steve Pearce … Ricki Seidman … Sahar Robertson of Ridgely Walsh … Betsy Wright Hawkings … Seyward Darby of The Atavist Magazine … Matt McDonald of Spectator USA … The New Yorker’s Adam Gopnik … Natalie Strom of Edelman … Justin Roth … Geo Saba of Rep. Ro Khanna’s (D-Calif.) office … Brooke Barker … Erik Brydges … New Hampshire congressional candidate Karoline Leavitt … WaPo’s Jacob Bogage … Emily Cherniack of New Politics … Michael Moynihan … CNA’s Elizabeth Cutler … Pam Coulter … Abbie McDonough … Morgan Buckley … Meagan Shepherd of Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R-Utah) office … Dabney Hegg … Merrit Gillard … former Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) (7-0) … former Rep. John Culberson (R-Texas) … Errol Louis (6-0)
Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
According to new data, insured Americans are struggling to navigate their health care coverage, particularly the insurer- and PBM-imposed barriers and cost sharing practices that stand between them and their medicines:
· 39% of insured Americans say they don’t understand what’s covered by their insurance. · Even with insurance, 15% report they would be unable to afford health care if they were to become seriously ill because of high out-of-pocket costs.
Americans want policy reforms that improve their insurance by providing more predictability and transparency in what is covered and lowering what they pay out of pocket. Read more in PhRMA’s latest Patient Experience Survey.